Despite Econalypse – Internet Still Innovating

Approaching the midpoint of 2009, the worldwide econalypse is in full effect. The close of April ushered in an 8.9 percent jobless rate in the U.S., which is believed to be at a 25 year high and now articles highlighting the worst hit cities are beginning to appear. This post is not about what is failing, but instead the new ideas, innovations and interesting developments rising out of the econalypse. It is not exhaustive, but it hopefully will unearth exciting and different ideas that could lead to a thriving 2010.

 The genesis of this topic came from Po Bronson’s What Should I Do with My Life, Now? article and the Editor’s Letter in the February 2009 Fast Company. The final motivational push came from the 2009 Fast Cities special section that focuses on cities with an eye to a better more efficient and socially beneficial future.

Infamously, “The Video” from October ‘08 is now considered the marker for the end of Web 2.0. A staple of the era was the RSS Reader, however this past week Slate discussed how the advancements in browsers have surpassed the once celebrated efficiency of RSS Readers that perhaps have now arrived at their extinction. The ability to load multiple sites in their native design through tabbed browsing is subtly groundbreaking. Browsers are rendering sites faster and it eliminates the ”other inbox” that could grow unwieldy in only a few hours depending on the number of subscribed feeds. The browser is quickly graduating from a tool to access the Internet to the program that runs every computing activity. Pundits have suggested it is the new Operating System, while this shows a misunderstanding of the functions of an OS it does highlight the direction we are heading.

Online Search is an emphasis of Connected and like a slow rising tide, the landscape, expectations and definition of Search is gradually and most assuredly changing. For several years Google has dominated search through its superior keyword search algorithm. Semantic search is the holy grail of search, and similarly to the cup of life, we have yet to uncover and unleash its power. In the place of semantic search we have seen an explosion in social search. Mahalo had been the leader with its human-powered search engine that displayed results based on user input, but Web 2.0 social search was a clear second to Google. What if people could ask questions and search for information in real time with a global network? This is precisely where microblogging technologies like Twitter excel, however Aardvark may prove to be the technology that takes social search beyond the limitations of keyword search. Unable to improve upon what former colleague Fernando Rizo has already written on the topic, check out this analysis on what Aardvark and similar technologies will do to the world of search.

WebTV and online distribution of video has been a primary recent focus of Connected. Through excellent journalism and activism, Time Warner Cable abandoned its test of broadband data caps. Continued reporting that unearthed the economic fallacy that ISPs have attempted to use to rationalize data caps and metered billing will hopefully maintain net neutrality. This is a necessity for WebTV as big name players such as Amazon and Hulu continue to make legal, high quality content available to consumers. Original Webseries also continue to find a place in the growing WebTV space. A few recent top examples include:

• The Guild – Season 2
• Purchase Brothers – Escape From City-17 or Part 1 (Rated R)
• Crackle – Angel of Death (Rated R)

Finally, the process of creating video is now a full fledged passion and recently I learned about tilt-shifting photography and video. This is an amazing example of Creative innovation:

True Knowledge – the Semantic Answer Engine

In all the noise and blogoshere hysteria last week regarding the Cuil launch, news from another startup search company across the pond was nearly overlooked. True Knowledge announced a second round of funding and appears to be a strong example of the future of search that I have been going on about for more than a year.

It does not describe itself as a search engine, but instead an answer engine. True Knowledge utilizes natural language or semantic processing to understand the meaning behind the words in a query versus simply identifying keywords. Unlike Powerset whose focus is only on applying semantic processing to parse information on the internet, True Knowledge is also building its own database that provides exact answers to user questions.

Currently in private beta, It is reported that True Knowledge will publicly launch in the first half of 2009. While it has a long way to go and many competitors, this is the future. I do not directly endorse True Knowledge and have not been invited to test it out, but it is yet another example demonstrating that a better more useful search is close at hand. The below video from True Knowledge provides a strong overview in what the company is trying to build and the technology it is using to get there:

more about “[true knowledge]™ – home“, posted with vodpod

Not so Cuil

Great marketing can only take a product so far. This is as true with the half price coupon as it is with an incredible opening day launch due to strong PR. Take Cuil as exhibit A. I was genuinely excited when I read this article. A Google killer with a new search design, a larger search index, unique relevance algorithm and privacy by not storing IP information. It had glowing posts from all the top tier bloggers right out of the gate, even though it became clear none had actually tested it yet.

Then it happened, bloggers started using it and all that great PR went for not. In fact, I think it is arguable that due to Cuil’s PR blitz earlier in the week, it received an even greater backlash when it became clear it was simply an average alternative search engine and was not ready to go up against the incumbent big four (Google, Ask, Yahoo and Microsoft).

Cuil’s launch provides several lessons and maybe a future PR case study. First, if you are a search engine and you do not appear in you own first page of results, perhaps you should delay the launch a bit. Another is do not over promise and under deliver. In hindsight, it is laughable to believe a startup could go head to head with Google on day one. Google has too much money, experience and scale. A company could grow to eclipse Google over time, but not until after extensive real world adoption and testing. Smart startups do not let their PR run wild. Lastly, we need more restraint and journalistic responsibility in our blogoshere media. No longer should pure speed dictate new media, but instead accuracy because that is true journalism. Except for the fake news anomalies seen in the Onion and the SportsPickle, people read news to learn truth about their world. New media is now the media as professional journalist are blending with former ameatuer blogoshpere titans. We do not have room for fanboys, we need journalists.

BrowseRank – PageRank Killer?

While we still wait for proven online semantic search to emerge, Microsoft unveiled what could be a notable improvement to the current search environment. Last week a paper was released that introduced BrowseRank, a new method for determining Web page importance based on user behavior.

This method is in contrast to Google’s PageRank, which utilizes complex algorithms that look at the number and rank of sites that link to any given page to determine its search value. This method has driven Google to its current dominant status in search, but it can be gamed by link farms and other search engine optimization methods – impressively spawning the SEO industry. 

BrowseRank measures the time users spend on pages and sites to calculate their search importance. This is even more brilliant than utilizing actual total and unique visitors to sites through intranet provider statistics. 

I am encouraged and look forward to continued innovation in online search. Google has gone stale with a lack of competition and there is good reason to believe Microsoft’s plan to reinvent itself in the online world starts with reinventing how we use the internet – both through search and cloud computing. Microsoft is entering both areas a bit late, but its failed bid to purchase Yahoo may prove the internal motivational push it needed to start change within instead of the slow monolithic growth method of acquisition. No one can compete with Google within the confines of today’s current search arena, but unlike the numerous startups out there, Microsoft has the size and resolve to compete and move the search game to its next iteration. I suspect we will see a very different search environment before April of next year that will include BrowseRank, mobile search, CPA and maybe even semantic.

Why Yahoo is Right and the Media Majority is Wrong

Perhaps it is possible you were not aware Microsoft was attempting to acquire Yahoo. I would wager that this has been the number one story in the tech community since February and most suggested Yahoo would be foolish not sell. Some felt that the internet had passed by the company, while most purely view this as a financial story. Meaning take the fast money now instead of building and maintaining a pillar of the digital world.

I have been outspoken about the ignorant and short sighted view of nearly everyone in the media, however I became incensed with this highly questionable post on TechCrunch after Yahoo announced its partnership to outsource a portion of its search advertising to Google that effectively ended any potential deal with Microsoft. This motivated me to finally outline publicly why Yahoo made the best deal for the longevity and health of the company. I am also an active investor that is disgusted by those who seek short term profits versus decisions that will strengthen a company for the long term. Invest in a company you believe in and want to see succeed in business, not to cash in quick by stripping the company of all its assets. Here is my reply to the TechCrunch article:

Beginning of the end for Yahoo? It is beyond me why the media keeps suggesting Yahoo and Google are in the same business and that search is everything. Google does one thing well. The majority of their products are worthless. Yahoo is a content portal. It has the number one site for Finance and Sports (by traffic) and the top email. They also lead the industry in display advertising, which is significantly more important/useful for marketers. Search ads…seriously, who is really clicking on this. If Microsofts CPA model catches fire, advertisers will revolt against the fraudable CPC model of Google.

Surely Yahoo is going to only farm out the low profit search terms to Google to maximize revenue. Yahoo is using Google as a tool because thats all they are. Beyond all of that…why is there not more discussion on Google diversification. Everything it does that provides revenue is tied to search. Thats great when you have the best search, but there has been plenty of articles outlining how the industry can be improved and if Google cannot figure it out, the house of cards falls down.

 Yahoo is fine. It hovers between the number one or two most visited site in the world. Unlike social networking sites, it also has a clear and viable way to monetize this traffic. One being display advertising, which Yahoo is the industry leader. Why would they sell to a company scrambling to find its place online that would only dissolve the Yahoo name in a few short years (much like the iconic Kinko’s that is now no more). I am not the only one who feels this way though as it looks like even Carl Icahn is warming up to an independent Yahoo. Moreover, Google is not going to eat Yahoo nor should this deal bring about antitrust concerns. Search is not the end all be all for the internet as TIm O’Reilly states and the two companies are not really competitors. Yahoo creates content. Google does not. Google is a tool, while Yahoo is a destination. Yahoo has interesting new products such as Yahoo Buzz (a Digg killer) and Go 3.0 and I expect the company to still be a thriving and relevant five years from now.

Search Adv…You Get What You Pay For

Last week Microsoft announced the launch of a new search advertising model that gives cash back for completed purchases. Live Search Cashback is an about-face to Google’s search advertising model that in my opinion provides more value to advertisers. Google search advertising is based on  cost-per-click (CPC) where Live Search Cashback is cost-per-action(CPA). This means merchants only pay for an advertisement when it directly leads to a sale instead of merely interest (or accidental clicks).

I believe this would eradicate the click fraud issue with CPC. Moreover, surely the CPA fee charged by Microsoft is more than that of a Google’s CPC, which could provide more revenue to Microsoft once Live Search Cashback gains a foothold and it starts to retain some of the fee instead of handing it all to customers. Simply put, CPA makes more sense and I am all about innovating systems for greater usability and efficiency. While I dont think this alone will defeat Google, I do think it will push the industry toward more effective search and likely overall online advertising.

 The Future of Search agrees and even looks at how Microsoft’s acquisition of Farecast could play a huge role. Results will crown the victor here and advertisers will determine whether quantity of clicks or quality wins out. Im betting on quality.

The most important area of the internet today

 

Search Update – more fractured and less useful!

Im not entirely sure how I became a search nerd, but as Ive arrived at this conclusion I have noticed that search really isnt getting better. For those of you that havent seen…Technorati updated their site again. Quite upsetting. They succeeded in making their site slower to load/navigate as well as create a new section called Topics. What false hope this was…instead of…I dunno…ranking out top blogs on certain topics like the Top 100, they have decided to create a running stream of select blogs on only a handful of broad topics(see making site slower). This is on the heals of the CEO leaving…brilliant way to lower your market value before selling yourself to…Google? Here are a few more search engines Ive come across:

Good Search – Search while donating to charity (Great idea…uses Yahoo search engine)
Hakia – “meaning-based” (semantic) search engine (very interesting, still testing)
Mahalo – world’s first human-powered search engine (not impressed)

The World of Search

This may be a bit of an odd first post, but recently there have been major and “exciting” new changes in online search that I felt compelled to speak up about. Since online search impacts many of the fundamentals of what we do, it is important to note some of the major improvements in that arena.

For social media search, Technorati got a face lift. Technorati is now the first major example of the new trend in online search deemed “universal search.” In short they knocked down the category silos allowing users to search the breadth of social media(blogs, pictures, videos) in one search vs searching for a specific term individually in blog search, picture search and video search. This is also a major change in direction for Technorati as it becomes more of an overall social media search engine with less focus on pure blog search. You can read more on TechCrunch.

More important is the term universal search that was announced by Google and commented here on GoodMorningSilconValley. As this is slowly rolled out I suspect the dramatic changes seen on Technorati will also occur on the online search engines such as Google and Ask.

Lastly, yes, I mentioned Ask.com. For anyone who will listen…yes the commercials are true, it is all about the algorithm and currently Ask.com has the best. Ask.com may not pull as many results as Google, but it absolutely provides better results(in my opinion). In particular, its blogs and feeds search is very strong.